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Even though it’s February of 2007, everybody it seems is talking about November of 2008 already. So here’s my $0.02.

First, lets take a look at the Republican candidates. Two of them stick out in my mind - Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Giuliani seems like a good candidate, though because he’s a republican I believe he’ll be held back somewhat by his liberal stances on some issues, including Gay’s rights. After all, George W. Bush’s republicans are a very, very conservative bunch and Giuliani is secular. But if Giuliani wins the backing of the RNC then the conservatives will have no choice but to vote for him… They won’t vote democratically. The more severe and immediate problem is that, though Giuliani has worked on a national level as a US Attorney, his national appeal as a policy maker is based upon his final months as Mayor of New York, from 9-11 until he left office. And after that he fought cancer, which adds to his appeal but not enough to overcome his 5-year absence on the national stage… well really he’s been absent from every stage- we haven’t really heard from him recently. In fact, I would say he’s not unlike a “Republican Obama” in that he has appeal, but he’s a bit too revolutionary to beat the other candidate in his party.

Which brings me to John McCain - the “other” republican candidate. Though I don’t really think “other” has a place in that sentence. For all intents and purposes, McCain is the republican candidate. After a failed bid for the republican nomination in 2000 he remained the Sr. Senator from Arizona, but never really left the National spotlight. Because of this he has an enormous fundraising capability, and the national-player bonafides that assure his nomination. Not to mention his Vietnam war experience- including his capture and torture- which he can point to for issues like Guantanamo Bay and… pretty much everything war-related. After losing the 2000 nomination to Bush, McCain has been one of Bush’s sharpest republican critics, and one of the more liberal republicans in general. About a year ago he started scrambling to back the Bush camp as much as possible in order to secure the Republican primary, but once he wins that you’ll see him become a very middle of the road republican - without directly attacking Bush - in order to grab as many independents as possible in the General election. He’s a strong enough candidate on war issues and is central enough that I won’t be surprised when he picks up a chunk of Democrats as well. Of course, this depends on the Democratic nominee…

…where the field is slightly wider open. Pulling ahead early is New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whom I’ll sum up as a candidate by saying: She’s not New York enough for New York, and she’s not Arkansas enough for Arkansas. By that I mean that I can definately see McCain taking Arkansas, and she definately will lose New York running against Rudy Giuliani. Though, because of her name recognition in both places and her ties to her husband I can see her winning either one or the other, depending on the Republican candidate. She’s heavily favored by the “Old Democrats”- the Carter-era planners that got lucky with Bill in ‘92. This means that she has lots large coffers upon which to draw, and is probably enough to give her the Democratic nomination. What she’s missing is the support of independants that just want a change from Bush, though she might be able to get some during the general campaign, and the support of the next generation of Democrats, the so-called “Net-Roots Bloggers” (of which I suppose I am one), and their surprisingly large fundraising capability. She’s also going to get a large percentage of the women’s vote, though depending on what Obama does she might lose some of the support of minority women. However her biggest setback might be that she’s just not the politician that Bill was. I can also see her as too proud to accept a potential rival as VP, and so her pick will probably be someone we’ve never heard from before, or have heard very little about… “Old Democrats”- not much help there. Bottom Line: McCain’s a better candidate than Hillary, and will win if he faces her in a general election.

Next up is the Lincolnesque Barack Obama, the Junior Senator from Illinois. He’s got the minority vote, and the vote of people that want a change (though some might find the change offered by Obama is too radical), charisma, plenty of hype (including books), and some stong ideals about the way that government should work. He also has fairly good support from the “Net-Roots” Democrats, a great staff, and politcal smarts. But what he doesn’t have is, as everyone has said by now, experience. He made a jump to the national stage with a speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004, but most feel that a jump from state legislature to junor senator to President of the United States is a path with too few stepping stones. “And besides”, they’ll say, “he’s young enough to be around again in four or eight years, and he’ll be a much stronger candidate then.” And that pretty much sums him up.

Last but not least we have Al Gore. Now, I know that he’s been out of politics for a while and hasn’t made any official move for ‘08 yet, but he will. In fact, James Carville (lead strategist of Bill Clinton’s ‘92 campaign) has said “He’s going to run, and he’s going to be formidable. If he didn’t run, I’d be shocked.” For more, see this article and this video. Basically, though he’s lost some (not all) support from the “Old Democrats” who have sided with Hillary, he has the full support of the “Net Rooters” and can sell out a stadium faster than Elton John. He’s got a huge private money pile on which to draw, and he’s kept his political contacts plentiful with his environmental work. Not to mention that he’s been against the Iraq war since before it started- something that Hillary is having a lot of trouble with since she initially voted for it- which gives him the anti-war vote, but he’s got a national popular election that he can point to as winning in 2000. But, perhaps most importantly, he’s shed the uptight, over-counseled demeanor that he held back in 2000, and has become loose, hip, and comfortable, all while talking about the issues that he wants to talk about. Again, that’s something that Hillary seems to be having trouble with. One thing that is also sometimes overlooked when talking about Al Gore- he can pretty much jump in and declare his candidacy whenever he wants.

So now we get into the real meat of this article- the reason why I wanted to write it.  As I’ve said before, I’m fairly certain that John McCain will be the Republican nominee, and that this will show itself fairly early during the primary season.  After all, he is perhaps the strongest single candidate in the long-winded list above, except perhaps for Gore.  So the question becomes: How do you beat a moderate republican with tons of money, war experience in a time of war, and the ability to dig into a chunk of voters that are traditionally yours?  The answer is to combine candidates.  Both Gore and Obama are smart and have plenty of Hype, and though Hillary is smart as well, she’s too proud to do what I propose.  But, like an interplanetary probe slingshotting around Jupiter and gaining momentum by stealing some of Jupiter’s orbital energy, Clinton’s campaign can be sacrificed to throw the Democratic power team of Gore/Obama forward and into the White House.  On paper, or at least in my mind, it seems easy enough:  Clinton and Obama proceed into the primaries as rivals for the Democratic nomination.  After the first few primaries, Obama may have won a few but Clinton will easily have the majority.  After Obama loses two or three (a few losses but not enough to prove that he couldn’t still take it), it’s time for Gore to throw his hat into the ring.  Along with Gore comes the third option that nobody was expecting (okay, maybe they were), and this disrupts primary season, throwing it all out of whack.  At the same time, Obama- the democrat that everybody wants to vote for but that doesn’t yet have enough experience- agrees to take the Vice Presidential spot on Gore’s ticket.  Now you’re set up for a great convention and a candidate team with tons of hype, money, smarts, a built-in candidate for 2016, and the antidote for the past 8 years.  That’s how you win a Presidential Election.

This entry was posted on Monday, February 5th, 2007 at 3:06 am and is filed under Main Posts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.